Paper 2World HistoryDisintegration of Soviet Union & Unipolar World
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Soviet Union came into existence in 1922 when the 12 members of former Russian empire signed union treaty. The three Baltic states (Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania)were integrated by Soviet President Joseph Stalin in 1940.

It achieved remarkable success during the early decades. Within a short period of less than three decades, it emerged as a superpower.

But this phenomenal success could not be sustained. The difficulties got transformed into a seriouspolitico-economiccrisiswhichdoomedthefateof Soviet Union.Theprocessofchange in USSR become quick in 1989, which was the bi-centenary year of French revolution. These changes proved to be revolutionary and finally led to the disintegration of USSR.

Thus, the largest empire of the world, which reached at its pinnacle at the time of Russian monarch Peter the Great, finally collapsed in 1991.

Structural Causes

  1. Economic Factors:
  • The factors responsible for the disintegration of Soviet Union were inherent in nature and structure of soviet socialist economy. Socialist model of economy functioned well up to
  • 1960's but after that it stagnated.

    • According to CIA estimates, the growth rate of the Soviet GNP dropped from almost 5 per cent annually in the 1960 s to 2-3 per cent in the 1970 s and under 2 per cent in the 1980 s.
    • The soviet economy was based on a rigid centralized planning. ▪ The economic plans formulated by central government were imposed throughout. Thus, flexibility was missing in structure of soviet economy, and it could not adapt itself with the changing realities.

    ▪ By 1970 s, a serious disconnect had developed between the plans being formulated by central government and economic realities prevailing on ground, because of which Soviet Union started facing a serious economic crisis.

    • There was no scope of private initiative in soviet economy. ▪ It did not encourage entrepreneurship. Because of this, serious economic stagnation developed by 1970 s. In the absence of private efforts and risk-

    taking ability of people, new economic activities could not be developed.

    • The role of market forces was almost absent in soviet economy.

    ▪ Thestatedecidedwhatwastobeproduced,howmuchtobeproduced and to whom goods are to be sold & at what price. Such a rigid system by state created inefficiency, because of which a seriouseconomiccrisisdeveloped.

    • The capitalist world encouraged USSR to be converted into the energy supplier of the world. As USSR started to receive the easy money through selling out hydrocarbon
    • products its attention was diverted from improving its manufacturing sector and technology.

      • Except in the field of defence and space, USSR lagged USA in technological development. Also, USSR failed to catch up the third industrial revolution (Information technology).
      • Russian economy felt a heavy burden of the cold war.
        • Apart from maintaining the armed race against USA it had to give economic support to many third world nations.
        • Russian industrialisation was based on the foundation of the basic and heavy industries. So, there was a dearth of consumer goods industries. The scarcity of consumer goods created wider discontentment among the people.
        1. Political factors:
        • Autocratic/despotic nature of the government
          • After Bolshevik revolution, Lenin established dictatorship of the party. But up to the era of Stalin it was converted into the dictatorship of a particular leader. Even during the era of Nikita Khrushchev and Leonard Brezhnev, there was not any substantial change in the system. The basic freedom of Russian people continued to be suppressed.
          • Political Un-accountability: There was a single party rule for around 70 years that turnedauthoritarian. The opaquenessprevailingin soviet political system resulted

          in growth of corruption during 1970 s. There were widespread corruption and lack of transparency in the system. The communist leaders were making personal fortunes when common masses were facing economic difficulties. This rigid communist system could not initiate necessary measures to revive soviet polity.

          • Gorbachev decided to allow elections with a multi-party system and create a presidencyfor the Soviet Union.Thisbegan a slowprocessofdemocratization that eventually destabilized Communist control and contributed to the collapse of the Soviet Union.
          • Ethnic division within Russia continued to be a major reason of conflict from centuries.
            • Under the autocratic rule of the communist government, all sort of racial and cultural divisions remained to be suppressed.
            • But once Gorbachev relaxed the system, different racial groups raised their heads, and this led to the collapse of the system.
            • There was a rise of nationalism among countries like Russia, Baltic republics, Ukraine, Georgia etc. This is the most important and immediate cause of the disintegration of the USSR.
            • The national feelingwasstrong amongthe most prosperous areasin USSRand not in Central Asian republics. Ordinary people among prosperous republics never liked to pay the big price to uplift the backward Central Asian republics.

            Consciously or unconsciously, Gorbachev played a role in demise of USSR.

            • He introduced the policy of 'Perestroika' & 'Glasnost'. It was adopted to infuse new energy and enthusiasm among people.
              • Glasnost ▪ Openness of ideas, freedom of expression, free press, releasing political dissidents
              • Perestroika ▪ Economicrestructuring:Hestartedhiseconomicreformsbyinvestinghuge amounts in heavy industry, alongside partial liberalisation of small trade, and wages linked to production.
              • Political restructuring (policy of demokratizatsiya i.e. democratization): The aim was to give the Soviet system more legitimacy through partial democratisation. ▪ Members of local soviet began to be elected by people directly, instead of the choice of party, the choice of candidate was given to people.

              ▪ The old soviet parliament was replaced by new parliament to have greater representation of people.

              • However, due to the policy of economic restructuring, the Russian society was going through a phase of major upheaval. The initiatives were well intended butthey could not
              • produce desired result. Soviet economy dropped by 15% during 1989-91 which led to increased hardship of people.

                • And exactly in the meanwhile, the policy of glasnost proved fatal as it created a chain reaction. People used political liberty to organize agitations and demonstrations.
                • Gorbachevwasofopinionthepopularpressurewillforcegovernmenttoinitiatenecessary reforms and the party to be more accountable. But very soon mass agitations started everywhere.

                  • Issues with partial democratization: In USSR, at the time of Gorbachev, the conflict was going on between the radical and conservative members.
                  • The radical members, in order to strengthen their position vis-a-vis conservative members, consciously encouraged ethnic division.

                    The member states of the USSR held soviet governmentresponsibleforprevailingcrisis.Beginning in April 1991, these republics started declaring independence one by one. The union government was not in position to maintain unity by force, under these circumstances the dissolution of Soviet Union was announced by Gorbachev on 25 Dec 1991 and by 31 Dec all the Soviet Institutions were closed. The power enjoyed by Soviet Union were transferred to Russia.

                    Changes in Socialist World (East Europe)

                    Changes in the socialist world were deeply linked to the changes in USSR. In fact, both were suffering from the common problem. So far USSR itself was a major obstacle behind the changes in those countries but now this barrier was finally removed.

                    Causes

                    • Historical factor:
                      • In east European countries socialist government were imposed from above and they were not enjoying the support of the people. That's why these governments remained alienated from the people, and they were treated as Russian satellite states.
                      • Economic factor:
                        • After 1960 s, stagnation appeared in socialist model of command economy.
                        • Communism miserably failed to improve the economic condition in Eastern Europe. It could not produce the standard of living, which should have been possible, as vast resources available in Eastern European countries.
                        • In socialist model of industrialisation there was emphasis over the heavy industries. Naturally it led to the scarcity of consumer goods.
                        • Socialist world failed to catch up the third industrial revolution.
                        • Cultural Factor:
                          • Increasing contact with the West in the 1980's showed people how backward the East was in comparison with the West, and suggested that their living standards were falling even further.
                          • External Factors:
                            • Gorbachev worked as a factor behind the change in socialist world.

                            ▪ He recognized the failings of the system and he admitted that it was 'an absurd situation' that the Soviet Union, the world's biggest producer of steel, fuel and energy, should be suffering shortages because of waste and inefficiency.

                            ▪ He hoped to save communism by revitalizing and modernizing it. He introduced new policies of glasnost (openness) and perestroika (economic and social reform). Criticism of the system was encouraged in the drive for improvement, provided nobody criticized the communist party.

                            ▪ In 1988 Gorbachev discarded the 'Brezhnev doctrine' in case of East European countries and recalled Russian soldiers from there.

                            • The encouragement by the capitalist power: USA and its allies continuously encouraged change in the region. They gave promise to pro-changers that, in case of demise of communist government in their country USA and its allies would give economic and technological support to new governments.
                            • Demonstration effect: Change in one region encouraged changes in another region too. ▪ For example, changes started from Poland, and it influenced Hungary and thus started the chain reaction leading to demolition of Berlin wall and re-

                            unification of Germany.

                            ▪ In sum, the changes continued for about one year, while starting from Poland it ended with the bloody conflict in Romania.

                            Developments after 1989

                            • Re-unification of Germany (1990)
                              • The four original powers which had occupied Germany gathered again in Berlin: US, UK, France and Russia. They sat together and decide there is no use of continued partition of Germany as the people are craving for unification. So, Germany was unified in 1990.
                              • Difficulties faced by these countries in carrying transition from socialist to capitalist model.
                                • A major economic upheaval started in different countries creating a fear of the comeback of the socialist governments again. Thus, shock-therapy was given to various economies.
                                • Erstwhile socialist countries demanded their entry into the European Union. But earlier, as their economy couldn't meet the criteria, thus they were initially offered the
                                • membership of NATO from 2001 onwards. It was only 2004 onwards that they were allowed to join the EU.

                                  • In 1993, there was dissolution of Czechoslovakia and Yugoslavia.
                                  • Czechoslovakia was divided into two parts: Czech Republic and Slovak Republic.
                                  • Yugoslavia had to face multiple fractures. Initiallyitwasdivided into 6 partsand later 7.

                                  Impact of the disintegration of USSR on International Relations The disintegration of Soviet Union and downfall of communism in Eastern Europe resulted in multiple far-reaching changes, not only in Europe but around the world.

                                  • With the disintegration of Soviet Union, the Cold War came to an end.
                                    • The end of cold war removed the clouds of a major conflict hovering over the horizons. ▪ During the period of Cold War, it appeared on many occasions that a major conflict will break out between the superpowers and MAD will get operationalized.
                                    • End of ideological battle:

                                    ▪ The disintegration of USSR showed the lacunae of socialistic model of economic governance to the developing world. It was seen as a victory of capitalism over socialism, often termed as 'end of ideology' thesis.

                                    ▪ It gave a serious blow to the prestige and popularity of communism. As a result of this popularity of capitalism enormously after 1991.

                                    • USA was left behind asthe only superpower in the world after the disintegration of USSR.
                                      • This resulted in completion of the process American ascending. This process was going on for more than 200 years.
                                      • It resulted in emergence of unipolar world, because no other major power was available to challenge American dominance.
                                      • With this, the international relations started revolving around the USA and hegemony of American national interest was witnessed in the world.
                                      • The forces of globalization and liberalization got a boost with disintegration of USSR. The capitalist world could push its agenda more effectively when USSR was no more.
                                      • Impact on the Socialist Bloc:
                                        • The eastern bloc was no more. As a result of this, the bloc politics became a thing of past.
                                        • Reorganization of Eastern Europe: Thedivision of Europe came to an end with the disintegration of Soviet Union.

                                        ▪ Demolition of the Berlin wall, the unification of Germany, the end of the Warsaw Pactandriseofdemocraticregimes changed thepoliticsof Europe by creating a spirit of unity. The iron curtain maintained by Soviet Union came down with its disintegration. The membership of European Union and NATO was enlarged,leadingto emergence of new economic bloc - EU.

                                        • Rise of Central Asia: ▪ Central Asia became a new centre of global interest particularly from Chinese expansionist ambitions in the region.
                                        • Impact on the Third World
                                          • Rise of free-market economic model: ▪ Dominance of western institutions like IMF and World Bank in the global economic governance pushed developing countries to adopt neo-liberal economic policies.
                                          • The forces of democracy also got a boost due to disintegration of USSR and downfall of communist totalitarianism.
                                          • Decline in financial aid to other countries: ▪ Due to the end of the Cold War, the ability of Russia and need of the US to attract the third world countries with aid and financial support reduced.
                                          • The disintegration of USSR was a lesson for Chinese leadership.

                                          ▪ China did not commit the mistake of initiating political and economic reforms simultaneously. Because of which the Chinese communist party could maintain its hold effectively and at the same time it could enjoy the benefits of a liberal economy.

                                          Causes behind the rise of the USA and his hegemony in the world

                                          • While one of the two superpowers ceased to exist after 1991 (USSR), the other (USA) remained with all its powers intact, even enhanced.
                                            • After the disintegration of Soviet Union, the largest and the successor state of the USSR, Russian Republic, chose not to adopt a confrontationist approach towards the USA.
                                            • Apart from the Russian Republic, no other state was able to give a challenge to the

                                            Usa.

                                            • Afterthedisintegrationof Soviet Russia,thesocialistmodelwasdiscredited,thecapitalist value system expanded largely.
                                              • In one sense, with the progress of globalization American hegemony expanded further.Asglobalizationsymbolizesthesuccessofthecapitalistmodeofproduction and the American value system.
                                              • Expansion of NATO after the Cold War
                                                • USA expanded NATO through increasing military expenditure and to maintain the American military presence in different parts of the world.
                                                • Bythe end of 20 th century,therewasthe revivalof Americaneconomy under Bill Clinton. So, the USA once again became the most powerful economy in the world.
                                                • After the tragedy of 9/11, the USA got a new cause to expand its hegemony further when American President George W. Bush made a declaration that either you are with the USA or with terrorism.
                                                • Then Iran, Iraq and North Korea were declared as the axis of evils. American Hegemony
                                                • Politics is about power. This power is in the form of military domination, economic power, political clout and cultural superiority.
                                                  • During the years of the Cold War (1945-91) the world was 'bipolar' and thus the power was divided between the two groups of countries. The collapse of the Soviet Union left
                                                  • the world with only a single power, the United States of America. This international system,dominatedbyasolesuper power/hyper-power,iscalleda'unipolar'system.Itmay be more appropriate to describe an international system with only one centre of power by the term 'hegemony'.

                                                    • Hegemony as Hard Power
                                                      • The bedrock of contemporary US power lies in the overwhelming superiority of its military power.
                                                      • American military dominance today is both absolute and relative.
                                                      • Hegemony as Structural Power
                                                        • This kind of hegemony is reflected in the role played by the US in providing global public goods like SLOCs or internet, necessary to sustain the free trade in the era of globalization.

                                                        ▪ It is the naval power of the hegemon that underwrites the law of the sea and ensures freedom of navigation in international waters.

                                                        • As we know, the US is present in all parts of the world, in all sectors of the world economy and in all areas of technology.
                                                        • The Bretton Woods system (IMF, WB, WTO), set up by the US after the Second World War constitutes the basic structure of the world economy.
                                                        • Hegemony as Soft Power
                                                          • This sense of hegemony is about the capacity to 'manufacture consent'. It implies class ascendancy in the social, political and particularly ideological spheres. ▪ It deploys not only military power but also ideological resources to shape the behaviour of competing and lesser powers.

                                                          ▪ Today, America is the most seductive, and in this sense the most powerful, culture on earth. American culture defines aspiration of good life around the worldtoday.Thisattribute iscalled 'softpower': the abilityto persuade rather than coerce.

                                                          The Unipolar Years

                                                          Senior Bush Years

                                                          • The US President George H.W. Bush hailed the emergence of a 'new world order'.
                                                            • Both Moscow and Washington hoped to initiate a new era of peace and mutual cooperation.
                                                            • The United Statessoughttoengage Russiaaswellasitsown NATOalliesinaneffort to resolve the numerous conflicts that began to arise in various parts of the world m the early 1990's.
                                                            • First Gulf War: In August 1990, Iraq invaded Kuwait.
                                                              • United Nations mandated the liberation of Kuwait by force.
                                                              • A massive coalition force of 660,000 troops from 34 countries fought against Iraq and defeated it. However, this UN 'Operation Desert Storm' was overwhelmingly American.
                                                              • Consequences: ▪ Iraqi forces were quickly defeated and forced to withdraw from Kuwait.

                                                              ▪ Though Iraq was attacked and defeated because it had invaded Kuwait and had an intention of invading Saudi Arabia, the chief reason for the action of the United States in the Middle East was oil resources.

                                                              • By its war against Iraq the United States showed that it could and would fight for its interests.
                                                              • ▪ The First Gulf War revealed the vast technological gap between the US military capability and that of other states.

                                                                ▪ Widespread television coverage also made it a 'video game war', with viewers around the world watching the destruction of Iraqi forces live on TV in the comfort of their living rooms.

                                                                ▪ The display of American will, and the display of immense technical competence was a major event in international affairs.

                                                                Clinton Years (1992-2000)

                                                                • Features:
                                                                  • Manifestedthepredominantpositionassumedby the United Statesinworldaffairs following the collapse of communism in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe and the end of the Cold War.

                                                                  ▪ The United States as a unipolar power began to act as a 'policeman' of the world.

                                                                  • In foreign policy, the Clinton government tended to focus on 'soft issues' like democracy promotion, climate change and world trade rather than on the 'hard politics' of military power and security.
                                                                  • Both in the Middle East and the former Yugoslavia, the United States was instrumental in helping negotiate peace agreements.
                                                                    • Nevertheless, the US on occasion did use military power.
                                                                      • Kosovo bombing by NATO (1999)
                                                                      • Response to the bombing of the US embassies in Nairobi, Kenya and Dar-es- Salaam, Tanzania (1998).

                                                                      GW Bush Years

                                                                      • The US response to 9/11 was swift and ferocious.
                                                                        • As a part of its 'Global War on Terror', the US launched 'Operation Enduring Freedom' against all those suspected to be behind this attack, mainly Al-

                                                                        Qaeda and the Taliban regime in Afghanistan.

                                                                        • Iraq Invasion (2003)
                                                                          • On 19 March 2003, the US launched its invasion of Iraqunderthecodename'Operation Iraqi Freedom'.

                                                                          ▪ The UNrefusedtogiveitsmandateto the invasion.

                                                                          ▪ Still, more than forty other countries joined in the US-led 'coalition of the willing.'

                                                                          • Purpose: ▪ The ostensible purpose of the invasion was to prevent Iraq from developing weapons of mass destruction (WMD).

                                                                          ▪ The invasion was motivated by other objectives, such as controlling Iraqi oilfields and installing a regime friendly to the US.

                                                                          • Consequences: ▪ Although the government of Saddam Hussein fell swiftly, the US has not been able to 'pacify' Iraq. Instead, a full-fledged insurgency against US occupation was ignited in Iraq.

                                                                          ▪ US invasion of Iraq was, in some crucial respects, both a military and political failure.

                                                                          US So S Colin Powell in US Senate (2003) displaying the bottle of anthrax

                                                                          Impact of Unipolarity (hegemony of American national interest was witnessed in the world)

                                                                          Disintegration of the USSR resulted in emergence of unipolar world because no other major power was available to challenge American dominance.

                                                                          • The international relations started revolving around the USA.
                                                                            • The unipolarity in the world transformed the nature of international relations because anybody who tried to stand in the American dominance began to be sidelined or suppressed.
                                                                            • The independence and prestige of international institutionslike UNOgotadverselyaffectedinunipolar because of dominance of American national interest.
                                                                              • NATO bombed Kosovo and the Western forces invaded Iraq in complete disregard to the U.N. Charter.
                                                                              • A number of regime changes were witnessed after 1991.
                                                                                • Theleaderswhofailedtoalign with Americanoutlookwasreplacedeither through war or peace overthrowing of Sadam Hussain in Iraq, Muammar Gaddafi in Libya are the examples.
                                                                                • Though there was no major in unipolar world, numerous of small wars and battles were triggered by the American dominance. Iraq and the Afghan war can be cited as example.
                                                                                  • The American hegemony has been responsible for the emergence of extremist groupslike Al-qaedaand ISIS.These groupsarethe productof thefactthatproper state actors could not succeed against American military might.
                                                                                  • Multilateralism
                                                                                    • This phase gave a leg-up to multilateralism and led to three decades of 'relative harmony' among the major powers.
                                                                                    • This phase saw the spread of democracy, greater acceptance of universal human rights, and a global consensus for maintaining international rule of law with multilateral institutions and independent international courts acting as referees.

                                                                                    From Unipolar to Multipolar Theworldtodayisexperiencingashiftfromaunipolarsystemdominatedby the United States to a more multipolar structure with the rise of other global powers such as China, Russia, and regional players. This shift has become more acute since the 2007 financial crisis.

                                                                                    Reasons

                                                                                    • The Rise of Other Powers: China's rapid economic growth and growing military capabilities have challenged US pre-eminence in Asia.
                                                                                      • Economic Challenges: The US faces significant economic challenges, including rising national debt, trade imbalances, and income inequality. These challenges limit its ability to project power and influence overseas.
                                                                                        • Declining Public Support: Public support for US foreign interventions has declined in recent years, fuelled by concerns about the cost and effectiveness of these interventions.
                                                                                        • This has made it more difficult for the US to maintain its global leadership role.

                                                                                          • Geopolitical Shifts: The global power landscape is becoming increasingly complex, with new actors and issues emerging. This complexity makes it more difficult for the US to maintain its unipolar dominance.
                                                                                          • Future Consequences

                                                                                            • Diffusion of power: No single country will have the same level of dominance asthe USdid in the unipolar era.
                                                                                              • Global economy: The global economyislikelyto become morefragmented,with different regions and countries pursuing their own economic interests. This could lead to increased trade tensions and protectionism.
                                                                                                • Shifting Alliances: Traditional alliances may become less important as countries seek to balancetheirrelationshipsbetweendifferentpowers.Newalliancesandpartnerships may emerge based on shared interests and goals.
                                                                                                  • Increased competition for strategic resources, leading to security challenges.
                                                                                                    • Issues such as territorial disputes, cybersecurity threats, and military posturing become more significant.
                                                                                                    • This competition could lead to conflict, but it could also create opportunities for cooperation and innovation.
                                                                                                    • Global governance challenge (UNO, IMF, WTO etc)
                                                                                                      • Existing international institutions and norms may face challenges in adapting to a multipolarworld.Thedistributionofpoweracrossmultipleactorsleadstodebates and disagreements regarding global governance and the rule of law.
                                                                                                      • The Westphalian notion of international law is today challenged by

                                                                                                      Russian/Chinese versions where the territorial integrity of nations and the sovereignty of states are less important.

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